考虑随机共因失效的战时装备群任务成功概率仿真评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.11.15

Abstract

Abstract:

Mission completion success probability evaluation of an equipment group is the basis of mission success probability evaluation of complex equipment system of systems under the condition of joint operation. To solve the problem of mission success probability evaluation of an equipment group during wartime, considering the randomness of mission time and the typical random common cause failure (RCCF) event of enemy fire attack in the mission, "direct" and "indirect" methods are used to evaluate the mission completion success probability of an equipment group, and the two evaluation methods are analyzed and compared through examples. The research results show that the "direct" method brings about more accurate results, but its simulation efficiency is lower; and within an allowable error range, when the parameters of the RCCF event and mission time are within a certain range, the "indirect" method performs better in the evaluation.

Key words: random common cause failure (RCCF), equipment group, mission completion success probability, simulation, equipment maintenance support

CLC Number:

Shuangchuan WANG, Xisheng JIA, Qiwei HU, Wenbin CAO, Chiming GUO. Simulation evaluation of mission completion success probability of equipment group during wartime considering random common cause failure[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(11): 2529-2537.

Figures/Tables 8

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Table 1

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部件编号	部件失效概率	部件换件维修时间参数
1	0.08	μ=－1.74, σ=1.04
2	0.12	μ=－1.61, σ=0.78
3	0.05	μ=－1.90, σ=0.97
4	0.10	μ=－1.35, σ=0.69
5	0.12	μ=－1.62, σ=1.23
6	0.06	μ=－1.75, σ=0.85
7	0.14	μ=－2.03, σ=1.42

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Simulation evaluation of mission completion success probability of equipment group during wartime considering random common cause failure

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