Abstract:

To evaluate the risk of the aircraft maneuver, a risk quantitative evaluation model is proposed. Key points are used to divide the maneuver and the definitions of different risk levels are given. As the uncertainty of the relationship between risk levels and parameters deviation, Bayesian inference is used to determine the probabilities of different risk levels. Combined with the weights of different risk levels, the risk values of different key points can be obtained. Because of the fuzzy judgment of different experts, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is used to determine the weights of the key points. Finally, the risk quantitative assessment of the maneuver is realized. The risk quantitative evaluation model is used to analyze the characteristic maneuver, i.e. loop. Through the analysis of the real data of the loop maneuver, the effectiveness of the model is validated.