考虑不确定性情况下的故障树重要度分析方法及应用

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.03.19

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 935-941.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.03.19

考虑不确定性情况下的故障树重要度分析方法及应用

李贵杰¹^,²^,*, 詹扬¹^,², 李大伟³, 夏广庆¹^,²

1. 大连理工大学航空航天学院, 辽宁大连 116024
2. 大连理工大学工业装备结构分析国家重点实验室, 辽宁大连 116024
3. 海军大连舰艇学院, 辽宁大连 116018

收稿日期:2023-04-25 出版日期:2024-02-29 发布日期:2024-03-08
通讯作者: 李贵杰
作者简介:李贵杰(1983—), 男, 副教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为飞行器结构/系统可靠性设计与分析、基于模型的可靠性系统工程
詹扬(2000—), 男, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为飞行器结构/系统可靠性设计与分析
李大伟(1988—), 男, 讲师, 硕士, 主要研究方向为飞行器设计、飞行器气动试验
夏广庆(1979—), 男, 教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为空天动力技术、空天飞行器前沿技术、微纳卫星总体设计、飞行器控制
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(52275143);强度与结构完整性全国重点实验室开放基金(ASSIKFJJ202302004);中央高校基本科研业务费(DUT21RC(3)071)

Fault tree importance measure analysis method and its application considering uncertainty

Guijie LI¹^,²^,*, Yang ZHAN¹^,², Dawei LI³, Guangqing XIA¹^,²

1. School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Structural Analysis for Industrial Equipment, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
3. Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, China

Received:2023-04-25 Online:2024-02-29 Published:2024-03-08
Contact: Guijie LI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了度量底事件发生概率不确定性对顶事件的影响程度, 在建立故障树概率组成函数的基础上, 基于矩独立重要性测度提出了考虑底事件发生概率不确定性情况的故障树重要度分析方法。以某飞机结冰探测系统为例, 利用所提出的重要度方法分析了底事件发生概率不确定性对该系统故障的影响程度, 设计者可根据重要度结果更有针对性地开展分析与设计, 同时也验证了所提方法的合理性。

关键词: 故障树分析, 不确定性, 系统可靠性, 重要性测度

Abstract:

In order to measure the impact of uncertainty in the probability of bottom event occurrence on the top event, a fault tree importance analysis method considering the uncertainty of bottom event occurrence probability is proposed based on the moment independent importance measure, based on the establishment of a fault tree probability composition function. Taking an aircraft icing detection system as an example, the importance method proposed was used to analyze the impact of uncertainty in the probability of bottom event occurrence on the system's failure. Designers can conduct more targeted analysis and design based on the importance results, and also verify the rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: fault tree analysis (FTA), uncertainty, system reliability, importance measure

中图分类号:

李贵杰, 詹扬, 李大伟, 夏广庆. 考虑不确定性情况下的故障树重要度分析方法及应用[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46(3): 935-941.

Guijie LI, Yang ZHAN, Dawei LI, Guangqing XIA. Fault tree importance measure analysis method and its application considering uncertainty[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(3): 935-941.

图/表 9

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符号	事件含义
T	丧失结冰探测告警与指示功能
E₁	视觉探测功能丧失
E₂	结冰探测告警功能丧失
E₃	告警信息丧失
E₄	飞行告警计算机功能故障
E₅	总线传输告警信息丧失
E₆	系统数据采集计算机故障
E₇	总线信号输出丧失
X₁	供电故障
X₂	控制开关故障
X₃	探测棒灯故障
X₄	飞行告警计算机1功能故障
X₅	飞行告警计算机2功能故障
X₆	左ID硬线信号输出丧失
X₇	右ID硬线信号输出丧失
X₈	系统数据采集计算机1故障
X₉	系统数据采集计算机2故障
X₁₀	左ID总线信号输出丧失
X₁₁	右ID总线信号输出丧失

底事件	分布形式	均值	标准差
X₁	指数分布	1.8×10^－5	1.8×10^－5
X₂	指数分布	7.2×10^－4	7.2×10^－4
X₃	指数分布	2.8×10^－3	2.8×10^－3
X₄	对数正态分布	3.4×10^－4	5.1×10^－5
X₅	对数正态分布	3.4×10^－4	5.1×10^－5
X₆	指数分布	1.2×10^－3	1.2×10^－3
X₇	指数分布	1.2×10^－3	1.2×10^－3
X₈	对数正态分布	2.7×10^－3	2.7×10^－4
X₉	对数正态分布	2.7×10^－3	2.7×10^－4
X₁₀	指数分布	9.1×10^－3	9.1×10^－3
X₁₁	指数分布	9.1×10^－3	9.1×10^－3

底事件重要度	计算结果(排序)	底事件重要度	计算结果(排序)
I₁^U	2.238 7×10^-2(5)	I₇^U	8.125 7×10^-3(6)
I₂^U	1.470 2×10^-1(2)	I₈^U	6.560 1×10^-4(11)
I₃^U	5.608 9×10^-1(1)	I₉^U	6.954 4×10^-4(10)
I₄^U	6.808 8×10^-2(3)	I₁₀^U	8.081 6×10^-3(8)
I₅^U	6.687 5×10^-2(4)	I₁₁^U	8.079 6×10^-3(9)
I₆^U	8.087 5×10^-3(7)	-	-

重要度	计算结果	重要度	计算结果(排序)
I_{4, 5}^U	8.482 4×10^-2(1)	I_{8, 9}^U	1.035 1×10^-3(4)
I_{6, 7}^U	1.086 6×10^-2(2)	I_{10, 11}^U	1.056 0×10^-2(3)

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考虑不确定性情况下的故障树重要度分析方法及应用

Fault tree importance measure analysis method and its application considering uncertainty

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