多状态系统任务成功性仿真评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.01.27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对多状态系统任务成功性评估问题, 通过对系统运行规则进行分析, 将其状态分为成功态和失败态两类。在计算系统状态持续时间分布和不同状态之间转移概率的基础上, 利用半马尔可夫过程, 建立系统运行的状态转移模型。通过分析使用、维修和保障资源约束的作用机理, 对多状态系统任务成功性评估进行仿真设计。最后, 结合示例验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 多状态系统, 任务成功性, 状态转移, 仿真模型

Abstract:

To evaluate the mission success of multi-state system, through an analysis of the principle of system operating, the system state is classified into successful state and fail state. By giving the duration distribution of system states and transition probability between different states, using semi-Markov process, the system running state transfer model is established. By analyzing the mechanism of use, maintenance and support resource constraints, simulation design for mission success evaluation of multi-state system is presented. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through examples.

Key words: multi-state system, mission success, state transition, simulation model

中图分类号:

邵松世, 刘海涛, 袁昊劼, 张志华. 多状态系统任务成功性仿真评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 46(1): 237-244.

Songshi SHAO, Haitao LIU, Haojie YUAN, Zhihua ZHANG. Simulation evaluation for mission success of multi-state system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 46(1): 237-244.

图/表 5

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成功态		失败态
1(启动, 备用, 备用)	6(备用, 工作, 备用)	11(故障, 启动, 故障)
2(工作, 备用, 备用)	7(故障, 故障, 工作)	12(备用, 启动, 故障)
3(故障, 启动, 工作)	8(启动, 故障, 工作)	13(故障, 故障, 故障)
4(备用, 启动, 工作)	9(工作, 故障, 备用)	14(启动, 故障, 故障)
5(故障, 工作, 备用)	10(启动, 备用, 工作)	15(启动, 备用, 故障)

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