考虑冲击与阶段备份的多阶段任务系统可靠性建模

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.07.39

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，由于在航空航天、军事、核能等领域的广泛应用，多阶段任务系统(phased mission system, PMS)可靠性建模方法得到了广泛的关注。航天系统所包含的电子设备会由于自身的老化导致性能退化而失效，同时也会因为外界的随机冲击导致失效，严重影响系统可靠度。针对该问题，提出一种基于模块化方法的模型。首先，将冲击模型与半马尔可夫过程结合，计算受冲击影响的工作单元可靠度。然后，提出一种基于二元决策图(binary decision diagram, BDD)模型的方法，对同时考虑冲击与阶段备份的PMS进行可靠性建模。最后，以某型航天器中的推进子系统为例对所提方法进行说明，并应用蒙特卡罗方法进行验证，证明了所提方法的建模效率与准确性。

关键词: 多阶段任务系统, 可靠性建模, 随机冲击, 阶段备份, 半马尔可夫过程

Abstract:

In recent years, due to its widespread application in fields such as aerospace, military, and nuclear energy, the reliability modeling method of phased mission system (PMS) has received widespread attention.The electronic equipment contained in the aerospace system may fail due to its own aging, leading to performance degradation, and may also fail due to random shocks, seriously affecting system reliability. A model based on modular methods is proposed to address this issue. Firstly, the impact model is combined with the semi-Markov process(SMP) to calculate the reliability of the work unit affected by the impact. Then, a method based on binary decision diagram (BDD) model is proposed to model the reliability of PMS that considers both impact and phase backup. Finally, taking the propulsion subsystem of a certain type of spacecraft as an example, the proposed method is explained and validated using the Monte Carlo method, demonstrating the modeling efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Key words: phased mission system (PMS), reliability modeling, random shock, phase backup, semi-Markov process (SMP)

中图分类号:

TB114.3

李翔宇, 黄洪钟, 熊晓燕. 考虑冲击与阶段备份的多阶段任务系统可靠性建模[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45(7): 2280-2286.

Xiangyu LI, Hongzhong HUANG, Xiaoyan XIONG. Reliability modeling of phased mission system considering shocks and phase backups[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(7): 2280-2286.

图/表 13

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

表1

表2

图11

参考文献 31

1	李孝鹏, 黄洪钟, 李福秋. 基于PRA的复杂航天多阶段任务系统可靠性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41 (9): 2141- 2147.
	LI X P , HUANG H Z , LI F Q . PRA based reliability analysis of complex space phased-mission system[J]. System Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 41 (9): 2141- 2147.
2	王鹏, 孙紫荆, 张帆, 等. 考虑概率型共因失效的多阶段任务系统可靠性分析模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44 (12): 3887- 3898. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.12.35
	WANG P , SUN Z J , ZHANG F , et al. Reliability analysis model for phased-mission system considering probabilistic common cause failure[J]. System Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44 (12): 3887- 3898. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.12.35
3	XING L D , AMARI S V . Reliability of phased-mission systems in handbook of performability engineering[M]. London: Springer, 2008: 349- 368.
4	LU J M , WU X Y . Reliability evaluation of generalized phased-mission systems with repairable components[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014, 121, 136- 145.
5	CHENG C , YANG J , LI L . Reliability evaluation of a k-out-of-n(G)-subsystem based multi-state phased mission system with common bus performance sharing subjected to common cause failures[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2021, 216, 108003.
6	LI X Y , HUANG H Z , LI Y F , et al. Reliability assessment of multi-state phased mission system with non-repairable multi-state components[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2018, 61, 181- 199. doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2018.04.008
7	LI X Y , XIONG X Y , GUO J Y , et al. Reliability assessment of non-repairable multi-state phased mission systems with backup missions[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 223, 108462.
8	LEVITIN G , XING L D , DAI Y S . Minimum mission cost cold-standby sequencing in non-repairable multi-phase systems[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 2014, 63 (1): 251- 258. doi: 10.1109/TR.2014.2299192
9	LA B R A , ANDREWS J D . Phased mission modelling using fault tree analysis[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part E: Journal of Process Mechanical Engineering, 2004, 218 (2): 83- 91. doi: 10.1243/095440804774134262
10	MO Y , XING L D , DUGAN J B . MDD-based method for efficient analysis on phased-mission systems with multimode fai-lures[J]. IEEE Trans.on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 2014, 44 (6): 757- 769. doi: 10.1109/TSMC.2013.2277692
11	FENG Q , LIU M , DUI H Y , et al. Importance measure-based phased mission reliability and UAV number optimization for swarm[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 223, 108478.
12	LI X Y , HUANG H Z , LI Y F . Reliability analysis of phased mission system with non-exponential and partially repairable components[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2018, 175, 119- 127.
13	YI K X , KOU G , GAO K Y , et al. Optimal allocation of multi-state elements in a sliding window system with phased missions[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2021, 235 (1): 50- 62. doi: 10.1177/1748006X20946165
14	CHENG C , YANG J , LI L . Reliability assessment of multi-state phased mission systems with common bus performance sharing considering transmission loss and performance storage[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2020, 199, 106917.
15	WU B , CUI L R . Reliability of repairable multi-state two-phase mission systems with finite number of phase switches[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2020, 77, 1229- 1241. doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2019.09.018
16	YU H Y , WU X Y , WU X Y . An extended object-oriented petri net model for mission reliability evaluation of phased-mission system with time redundancy[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2020, 197, 106786.
17	WANG Z K , ZENG S K , GUO J B , et al. A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2021, 207, 107385.
18	SHRESTHA A , XING L D , DAI Y S . Reliability analysis of multistate phased-mission systems with unordered and ordered states[J]. IEEE Trans.on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and Humans, 2010, 41 (4): 625- 636.
19	MURA I , BONDAVALLI A . Hierarchical modeling and evaluation of phased-mission systems[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 1999, 48 (4): 360- 368. doi: 10.1109/24.814518
20	WANG D , TRIVEDI K S . Reliability analysis of phased-mission system with independent component repairs[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 2007, 56 (3): 540- 551. doi: 10.1109/TR.2007.903268
21	XING L , LEVITIN G . BDD-based reliability evaluation of phased-mission systems with internal/external common-cause failures[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2013, 112, 145- 153.
22	PENG R , ZHAI Q Q , XING L D , et al. Reliability of demand-based phased-mission systems subject to fault level coverage[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014, 121, 18- 25.
23	MO Y C , XING L D , AMARI S V . A multiple-valued decision diagram based method for efficient reliability analysis of non-repairable phased-mission systems[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 2014, 63 (1): 320- 330. doi: 10.1109/TR.2014.2299497
24	SHAO Q , YANG S K , BIAN C , et al. Formal analysis of repairable phased-mission systems with common cause failures[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 2020, 70 (1): 416- 427.
25	WU X Y , YU H Y , BALAKRISHNAN N . Modular model and algebraic phase algorithm for reliability modelling and eva-luation of phased-mission systems with conflicting phase redundancy[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 227, 108735.
26	OLDHAM T R , MCLEAN F B . Total ionizing dose effects in MOS oxides and devices[J]. IEEE Trans.on Nuclear Science, 2003, 50 (3): 483- 499. doi: 10.1109/TNS.2003.812927
27	NORMAND E . Single-event effects in avionics[J]. IEEE Trans.on Nuclear Science, 1996, 43 (2): 461- 474. doi: 10.1109/23.490893
28	BEDINGFIELD K L , LEACH R D . Spacecraft system failures and anomalies attributed to the natural space environment[M]. Huntsville, Alabama: Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1996.
29	刘晓娟. 基于多失效模式的复杂系统可靠性分析研究[D]. 南京: 南京航空航天大学, 2017.
	LIU X J. Research on complex system reliability analysis based on multiple failure modes[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017.
30	DISTEFANO S , TRIVEDI K S . Non-Markovian state-space models in dependability evaluation[J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2013, 29 (2): 225- 239. doi: 10.1002/qre.1305
31	DANG W , LV C M , WANG Z Q . Design and implementation of space radiation environment simulation platform[J]. Microcomputer Information, 2007, 28 (1): 91- 96.

参数	工作单元C	工作单元F
W_max/Gy	200	160
D_max/(MeV/(mg·cm²))	52	45
w_t/(Gy/h)	u_w=0.6 σ_w=1.2	u_w=0.3 σ_w=1.6
W_i/(Gy/h)	u_W=1.2 σ_W=3.2	u_W=1.2 σ_W=3.2
D_i/(MeV/(mg·cm²))	u_D=20 u_D=5.6	u_D=20 u_D=5.6

参数	A	B	D	E
α	2.2	2.1	3.1	2.6
β(1/天)	1 292	1 343.2	288.7	432.8

[1]	李京峰, 陈云翔, 项华春, 王健. 考虑随机冲击影响的多部件系统视情维修与备件库存联合优化[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(3): 875-883.
[2]	王鹏, 孙紫荆, 张帆, 肖国松. 考虑概率型共因失效的多阶段任务系统可靠性分析模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(12): 3887-3898.
[3]	李孝鹏, 黄洪钟, 李福秋. 基于PRA的复杂航天多阶段任务系统可靠性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(9): 2141-2147.
[4]	史跃东, 金家善, 徐一帆. 半马尔可夫跃迁历程下装备复杂系统多状态可靠性分析与评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(2): 444-452.
[5]	闫华, 汪贻生, 王锐淇, 刘波, 郭立卿, 肖骅. 基于GPU的大规模多阶段任务系统可靠性并行计算方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(1): 215-222.
[6]	白灿, 胡昌华, 司小胜, 李洪鹏, 张正新, 裴洪. 随机冲击影响的非线性退化设备剩余寿命预测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2018, 40(12): 2729-2735.
[7]	钟季龙, 郭基联, 王卓健, 邵帅. 装备体系多阶段任务可靠性高效解析算法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2016, 38(1): 232-238.
[8]	刘林林, 任羿, 王自力, 杨德真. 基于贝叶斯网络的GO法模型算法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37(1): 212-218.
[9]	郝志鹏，曾声奎，郭健彬. 非对称时变共因失效的随机冲击-随机阈值模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2014, 36(3): 598-602.