大型复杂系统多态可靠性快速评估算法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.10.35

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开展装备系统可靠性评估工作, 对于发挥装备固有性能、提升装备使用效能、降低装备管控风险, 具有重要工程应用价值。针对大型装备复杂系统, 通过构建面向不同耦合结构的极限序列核和极限可靠度逼近函数, 探索了一类计算资源要求低, 计算便捷, 且逼近精度满足工程需要的多状态可靠性建模、分析与快速评估方法。案例研究表明: 算法突破了装备复杂系统大维度可靠性解算技术瓶颈, 提升了可靠性评估效率, 且评估与风险预报效果好; 算法丰富了装备复杂系统多状态可靠性建模、分析与评估体系, 可为可靠性工程的设计、使用与管理人员, 提供前沿理论储备和工程技术借鉴。

关键词: 大型系统, 极限序列核, 多状态, 可靠性评估, 快速算法

Abstract:

Carrying out reliability evaluation of equipment system has important engineering application value for ehhancing performance, improving efficiency, and reducing management and control risks. Aiming at the large-scale complex equipment system, by constructing limit sequence kernel and limit reliability approximation function for different coupling structures, a multi-state reliability modeling, analysis, and fast evaluation method with low requirement of calculation resources, calculation convenience, and approximation accuracy meeting the needs of engineering is explored. The case study shows that the algorithm breaks through the bottleneck of large-scale reliability calculation technology of complex equipment system, improves the efficiency of reliability evaluation, and has good effect in evaluation and risk prediction. Moreover, the algorithm enriches the multi-state reliability modeling, analysis, and evaluation system of complex equipment system, which can provide advanced theoretical reserves and engineering technology reference for reliability engineering design, use, and management personnel.

Key words: large-scale system, limit sequence kernel, multi-state, reliability evaluation, fast algorithm

中图分类号:

TP11

史跃东, 金家善, 柴凯. 大型复杂系统多态可靠性快速评估算法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(10): 3282-3290.

Yuedong SHI, Jiashan JIN, Kai CHAI. Multi-state reliability fast evaluation algorithm for large-scale complex system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(10): 3282-3290.

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状态v	钢缕丝状态说明	钢缕丝与钢索系统状态约束关系
0	钢缕丝出现破损或腐蚀, 且相关数量超过钢缕丝总数的40%。	$ \begin{gathered}T(v, z)= \\\min _i \max _j T_{i j}(v, z), \\i \in\{1, 2, \cdots, 12\}, \\j \in\{1, 2, \cdots, 26\}\end{gathered}$
1	钢缕丝出现破损或腐蚀, 且相关数量超过钢缕丝总数的20%, 但小于40%。
2	钢缕丝出现破损或腐蚀, 但相关数量不超过钢缕丝总数的20%。
3	全部钢缕丝状态完好, 没有任何形式的功能缺陷。

工况z	年均持续时间/h	转运载荷范围/t	发生概率q_z
0	8 080	0~5	0.922 4
1	120	5~20	0.013 7
2	320	20~40	0.036 5
3	240	40~60	0.027 4

状态v	工况z	α(v, z)	β(v, z)	备注
1	0	3	0.003	α(v, 0)≡3 β(v, 0)=0.003v
2	0	3	0.006
3	0	3	0.009
1	1	2.8	0.007	α(v, 1)≡2.8 β(v, 1)=0.007v
2	1	2.8	0.014
3	1	2.8	0.021
1	2	1.9	0.092	α(v, 2)≡1.9 β(v, 2)=0.092v
2	2	1.9	0.184
3	2	1.9	0.276
1	3	1.4	0.260	α(v, 3)≡1.4 β(v, 3)=0.260v
2	3	1.4	0.520
3	3	1.4	0.780

〈Φ(12, v, z), Ψ(12, v, z)〉	z=0	z=1	z=2	z=3
v=1	〈0.654 7, 8.321 7〉	〈0.594 7, 7.153 5〉	〈0.573 7, 4.682 8〉	〈0.643 4, 3.869 9〉
v=2	〈0.512 5, 6.604 9〉	〈0.464 3, 5.584 8〉	〈0.398 3, 3.251 4〉	〈0.392 2, 2.358 7〉
v=3	〈0.447 7, 5.769 9〉	〈0.401 7, 4.831 9〉	〈0.321 8, 2.626 6〉	〈0.293 6, 1.765 6〉

统计量	v=0	v=1	v=2	v=3
M(v)	10	8.637 2	6.813 4	5.933 3
σ(v)	0	1.198 0	1.086 4	1.009 7
${\bar M}$(v)	1.362 8	1.823 8	0.880 1	5.933 3