不确定信息下考虑相关性与多样性的作战方案推荐方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.10.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对现有的作战需求表征与作战方案评价存在不确定性信息、作战方案设计中经验积累与重用以及作战方案推荐中相关性与多样性权衡问题, 提出了一种不确定信息下考虑相关性与多样性的作战方案推荐方法。首先，将粗糙集理论融入最优最劣法(best-worst method, BWM)中对各作战能力属性进行赋权; 其次, 给出了不确定信息下作战方案与任务需求之间的相关性、作战方案之间的多样性计算模型; 然后, 提出了权衡相关性和多样性的行列式点过程(determinantal point process, DPP)模型, 在此基础上, 给出了贪婪最大后验概率(maximum a posterior, MAP)推断算法和贪婪Trade-off推断算法以获得作战方案最优推荐子集; 最后, 通过案例分析验证了所提模型和方法的适用性和可行性。

Abstract:

There are uncertainty information, experience accumulation and reuse in operation plan design, and the trade-off between relativity and diversity in operation plan recommendation. An operational plan recommendation method considering relativity and diversity under uncertain information is proposed. Firstly, the rough set theory is integrated into the best-worst method (BWM) to weight each combat capability attribute. Secondly, the relativity between operational plan and mission requirements under uncertain information and the diversity calculation model between operational plan are given. Then, a determinant point process (DPP) model is proposed to balance relativity and diversity. On this basis, greedy maximum a posterior (MAP) inference algorithm and greedy Trade-off inference algorithm are given to obtain the best recommended subset of operational plan. Finally, the applicability and feasibility of the proposed model and method are verified by case study.

Key words: combat plans recommendation, uncertain information, relativity, diversity, determinantal point process

中图分类号:

E917

徐任杰, 宫琳, 朱明仁, 谢剑, 俞景嘉. 不确定信息下考虑相关性与多样性的作战方案推荐方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(10): 3115-3123.

Renjie XU, Lin GONG, Mingren ZHU, Jian XIE, Jingjia YU. Combat plans recommendation method considering relativity and diversity under uncertain information[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(10): 3115-3123.

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能力属性	RZ_B	RZ_W	W_s
侦察能力	[4.480, 4.840]	[5.747, 6.640]	0.136
信息处理能力	[2.650, 3.350]	[5.160, 5.640]	0.158
信息传输能力	[1.000, 1.000]	[9.000, 9.000]	0.348
辅助决策能力	[5.360, 6.253]	[4.650, 5.350]	0.100
突发应变能力	[5.560, 6.350]	[3.747, 4.640]	0.077
作战适宜性	[9.000, 9.000]	[1.000, 1.000]	0.030
打击精度	[5.360, 5.840]	[3.747, 4.640]	0.080
机动速度	[5.747, 7.080]	[3.747, 4.640]	0.071

方案	P¹	P²	P³	…	P⁵⁰
P¹	1.000	0.509	0.461	…	0.531
P²	0.509	1.000	0.427	…	0.584
P³	0.461	0.427	1.000	…	0.523
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
P⁵⁰	0.531	0.584	0.523	…	1
P^c	0.631	0.635	0.794	…	0.860

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