舰载导弹系统故障率及保修期模型优化

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.01.43

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

保修期是国际可靠性领域的前沿研究。基于海军舰载导弹系统入役初期现状及装备保修研究领域特点, 论证了对舰载导弹系统故障规律定量化建模研究的必要性, 利用实例现场数据, 使用线性回归拟合发现舰载导弹系统故障规律更近似于二参数威布尔分布, 并求出舰载导弹系统故障率函数及参数。分别创建了确定舰载导弹系统全局最优保修期模型与公平保修期模型, 利用实例现场数据对模型求解, 得出的全局最优保修期与公平保修期均达到建模及研究目标, 可为海军与承制方协商调整优化舰载导弹系统初始保修期提供参考, 推进舰载导弹系统保修研究与制度改革。

关键词: 保修期, 舰载导弹系统, 二参数威布尔分布, 全局最优保修期模型, 公平保修期模型

Abstract:

Warranty period is a frontier research in the field of international reliability. Based on the current situation of the naval shipborne missile system at the initial stage of service and the characteristics of equipment warranty research field, the necessity of quantitative modeling of shipborne missile system fault characteristics is demonstrated. By using the field data and using linear regression fitting, it is found that the failure rate of shipborne missile system is more similar to the two parameter Weibull distribution, and the failure rate function and parameters of shipborne missile system are obtained. The global optimal warranty period model and the equal warranty period model of shipborne missile system are established respectively. The model is solved by using the field data. The global optimal warranty period solution and the equivalent warranty period solution are consistent with the modeling and research objectives, which can provide sugges tions for the Navy and the manufacturer to adjust and optimize the initial warranty period of shipborne missile system through negotiation, promote the research and reform of shipborne missile system warranty.

Key words: warranty period, shipborne missile system, two parameter Weibull distribution, global optimal warranty model, equal warranty model

中图分类号:

张怀强, 李铁成, 杜军岗. 舰载导弹系统故障率及保修期模型优化[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(1): 347-356.

Huaiqiang ZHANG, Tiecheng LI, Jungang DU. Optimization of failure rate and warranty model of shipborne missile system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(1): 347-356.

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序数	故障日期	时间/d	序数	故障日期	时间/d
1	2013年1月22日	27	10	2014年7月20日	571
2	2013年2月11日	47	11	2014年8月28日	610
3	2013年4月4日	99	12	2015年4月17日	842
4	2013年4月17日	112	13	2015年9月6日	984
5	2013年6月14日	170	14	2015年10月2日	1 010
6	2013年9月8日	256	15	2016年6月16日	1 268
7	2013年11月1日	310	16	2016年11月30日	1 435
8	2013年12月25日	364	17	2017年1月20日	1 486
9	2014年2月20日	421	18	2017年5月24日	1 610

威布尔分布 (r_威布尔= 0.991 292 62)		指数分布 (r_指数= 0.958 176 02)		极小值分布 (r_极小值= 0.904 088 157)		正态分布 (r_正态= 0.959 912 286)		对数正态分布 (r_对数正态= 0.966 068 715)
x	y	x	y	x	y	x	y	x	y
3.30	3.25	27	0.04	27	3.25	27	1.77	3.30	1.77
3.85	2.33	47	0.10	47	2.33	47	1.33	3.85	1.33
4.60	1.84	99	0.16	99	1.84	99	1.05	4.60	1.05
4.72	1.49	112	0.22	112	1.49	112	0.84	4.72	0.84
5.14	1.22	170	0.29	170	1.22	170	0.66	5.14	0.66
5.55	0.99	256	0.37	256	0.99	256	0.50	5.55	0.50
5.74	0.79	310	0.45	310	0.79	310	0.35	5.74	0.35
5.90	0.61	364	0.54	364	0.61	364	0.21	5.90	0.21
6.04	0.45	421	0.64	421	0.45	421	0.07	6.04	0.07
6.35	0.29	571	0.75	571	0.29	571	0.07	6.35	0.07
6.41	0.14	610	0.87	610	0.14	610	0.21	6.41	0.21
6.74	0.01	842	1.01	842	0.01	842	0.35	6.74	0.35
6.89	0.16	984	1.17	984	0.16	984	0.50	6.89	0.50
6.92	0.31	1 010	1.36	1 010	0.31	1 010	0.66	6.92	0.66
7.15	0.47	1 268	1.60	1 268	0.47	1 268	0.84	7.15	0.84
7.27	0.65	1 435	1.92	1 435	0.65	1 435	1.05	7.27	1.05
7.30	0.87	1 486	2.38	1 486	0.87	1 486	1.33	7.30	1.33
7.38	1.18	1 610	3.27	1 610	1.18	1 610	1.77	7.38	1.77

项目	数值
Multiple R	0.991 292 620
R Square	0.982 661 058
Adjusted R Square	0.981 577 375
标准误差	0.158 042 406
观测值	18

项目	回归系数值	标准误差
系数1	6.149 295 483	0.189 906 180
系数2	0.941 340 349	0.031 260 513

参数	计算值
T/d	1 825
$\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{I} t_{i}}{I T}$	10 012
I	18
l	-2.15
α=0.05	l∈(－∞, -1.96)
α=0.10	l∈(－∞, -1.645)
可靠性属性	可靠性增长