基于技术成熟度的确信可靠性分配方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.01.41

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

可靠性分配是在产品设计阶段完成, 以保证系统指标满足要求的一项重要工程活动。现有基于概率测度的可靠性分配方法分配至单元的指标无法在小样本条件下进行验证。为此, 提出一种以不确定随机系统为对象、以确信可靠度为核心的可靠性分配方法。该方法以技术成熟度为工具, 实现系统的单元的类别的划分和可靠性机会成本函数的构造, 进而提出系统确信可靠度优化分配模型及其求解算法, 实现了最小成本下系统可靠性指标的合理分配。以船舶双燃料供气系统为例, 开展了确信可靠性分配工作, 验证了方法的有效性。

关键词: 可靠性分配, 确信可靠性理论, 不确定随机系统, 技术成熟度, 可靠性机会成本函数, 优化分配模型

Abstract:

Reliability allocation is an important engineering activity completed in the product design stage to ensure that the system indicators meet the requirements. The existing reliability allocation method using probability measures to assign indicators to the unit cannot be verified under a small sample condition. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a reliability allocation method centered on belief reliability for uncertain random system. This method uses technology maturity as a tool to realize the classification of system units and the construction of reliability opportunity cost functions, and further proposes the system belief reliability optimization allocation model and its solution algorithm to achieve a reasonable allocation of system reliability indicators at the minimum cost. Taking the marine dual-fuel gas supply system as an example, the work of belief reliability allocation was carried out to verify the effectiveness of the method.

Key words: reliability allocation, belief reliability theory, uncertain random system, technology readiness, reliability opportunity cost function, optimization allocation model

中图分类号:

TB114.3

陈志聪, 康锐, 祖天培, 张清源. 基于技术成熟度的确信可靠性分配方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(1): 327-337.

Zhicong CHEN, Rui KANG, Tianpei ZU, Qingyuan ZHANG. Belief reliability allocation method based on technology readiness[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(1): 327-337.

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等级	分数	说明
1	9~10	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本最高
2	7~8	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本较高
3	5~6	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本中等
4	3~4	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本较低
5	1~2	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本最低

参数	随机单元	不确定单元
技术成熟度评分	S_i^P=N_i^P+LS_i^P	S_j^U=N_j^U+LS_j^U
评分分配因子	$C_i^P = \frac{{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{{l_P}} {S_i^P} - S_i^P}}{{\left({{l_P} - 1} \right)\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{{l_P}} {S_i^P} }}\frac{{B_i^P}}{{\mathop {\max }\limits_{1 \le i \le {l_P}} B_i^P}}$	$C_j^U = \frac{{\mathop {\min }\limits_{1 \le j \le {l_U}} S_j^U}}{{S_j^U}}\frac{{B_j^U}}{{\mathop {\max }\limits_{1 \le j \le {l_U}} B_j^U}}$
极限可靠度	R_{i, max}^P=(R_s^P)^{C_i^P}	R_{j, max}^U=(R_s^U)^{C_j^U}

单元	技术成度等级	单元的信息是否足够获得概率表达	单元类别判定结果
LNG储罐	N₁=5	-	不确定单元
储油罐	N₂=7	是	不确定单元
滤清器1	N₃=8	否	随机单元
滤清器2	N₄=8	否	随机单元
减压器	N₅=7	否	随机单元
汽化器	N₆=8	否	随机单元
电子流量计	N₇=9	否	随机单元
混合器	N₈=4	-	不确定单元
电磁喷射阀	N₉=5	-	不确定单元
发动机1	N₁₀=6	-	不确定单元
发动机2	N₁₁=6	-	不确定单元

随机单元	技术成熟度等级	等级满足度评分	技术成熟度评分
滤清器	N₁^P=8	LR₁^P=5/6	S₁^P=53/6
减压器	N₂^P=7	LR₂^P=1/2	S₂^P=15/2
汽化器	N₃^P=8	LR₃^P=4/7	S₃^P=60/7
电子流量计	N₄^P=9	LR₄^P=2/5	S₄^P=47/5

不确定单元	技术成熟度等级	等级满足度评分	技术成熟度评分
LNG储罐	N₁^U=5	LR₁^U=3/4	S₁^U=23/4
储油罐	N₂^U=7	LR₂^U=1/3	S₂^U=22/3
混合器	N₃^U=4	LR₃^U=1/4	S₃^U=17/4
电磁喷射阀	N₄^U=5	LR₄^U=3/8	S₄^U=43/8
发动机	N₅^U=6	LR₅^U=2/3	S₅^U=20/3