大型低轨星座部署对空间碎片环境的影响分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.09.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为分析大型低轨(low Earth orbit, LEO)星座部署对未来空间碎片环境的影响,本文利用空间碎片环境长期演化模型(space objects long-term evolution model, SOLEM)研究了大型星座卫星数量、质量、面积、部署高度及任务后处置(post mission disposal, PMD)策略等因素对碰撞次数和碎片数量的影响。分析可知,卫星数量和面积主要影响碰撞次数,而卫星质量主要影响由碰撞产生的新增碎片数量。在满足任务条件下,可综合考虑三者关系选取最合适方案。同时,星座部署在1 100 km高度对空间碎片环境影响较大,在遵守25年规则的前提下应将PMD成功率提升至95%以上。

关键词: 空间碎片环境, 大型低轨星座, 碰撞, 空间碎片环境长期演化模型

Abstract:

In order to analyze the impact of large low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation deployment on the future space environment, the space object long-term evolution model (SOLEM), is used to study the impact of the factors such as the number, the mass, the area, the orbit altitude of satellites and the post mission disposal (PMD) in large constellations on the number of collisions and debris. The analysis shows that the important factors affecting the collision are the number and area of satellites, while the main factor affecting the number of the new debris generated by collisions is the satellite mass. However, under the condition of satisfying the task, operators can consider the relationship of these three factors comprehensively to select the most appropriate plan. At the same time, it has a great impact on the space debris environment when deploying at 1 100 km and the success rate of PMD should be increased to more than 95% on the premise of complying with the 25-year rule.

Key words: space debris environment, large low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation, collision, space object long-term evolution model (SOLEM)

中图分类号:

V412.4

沈丹, 刘静. 大型低轨星座部署对空间碎片环境的影响分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(9): 2041-2051.

Dan SHEN, Jing LIU. Analysis of the impact of large LEO constellation deployment on the space debris environment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(9): 2041-2051.

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星座	数量/颗	高度/km
SpaceX V-band	7 518	335~345
SpaceX Starlink	2 825	1 110~1 325
SpaceX Starlink	1 584	550
SpaceX Starlink	30 000	328~580
Amazon Kuiper	3 236	590~630
Boeing (Ph 2)	1 560	1 000
Boeing (Ph 1)	1 396	1 200
Commsat	800	600

项目	描述
初始数据	2017年9月1日的空间碎片环境, LEO和穿过LEO的10 cm以上物体
发射模型	统计2009年9月1日—2017年8月31日的发射情况,在演化期间不断重复
卫星特征	8年任务期,无碰撞规避和轨道维持, 100%钝化率
减缓措施	90%任务后弃置成功率,无主动碎片清除

项目	描述
星座信息	1 080颗卫星,轨道倾角85°,轨道高度1 100 km;
星座发射信息	2018—2020年每发射20次,每次18颗;
星座发射信息	2021—2070年进行补给发射,每年发射12次,每次18颗;没有与任务相关的物体释放;发射过程中,上面级直接陨落;
卫星信息	5年任务期,质量200 kg,有效横截面积1 m²,任务期内考虑人工碰撞规避;
减缓措施	任务后弃置成功率为90%,无主动碎片清除

方案	卫星数量/颗	2018—2020年发射情况	2021—2070年发射情况
1(a)	540	20次/年 9颗/次	12次/年 9颗/次
1(b)	1 080	20次/年 18颗/次	12次/年 18颗/次
1(c)	1 620	20次/年 27颗/次	12次/年 27颗/次
1(d)	4 320	20次/年 72颗/次	12次/年 72颗/次

方案	卫星数量/颗	卫星面积/m²	卫星质量/kg
2(a)	1 080	0.5	200
2(b)	1 080	1	200
2(c)	1 080	2	200
2(d)	1 080	4	200