基于作战环的导弹武器系统体系相对贡献率评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.08.13

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1734-1739.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.08.13

基于作战环的导弹武器系统体系相对贡献率评估

房桂祥^1,²(), 谭跃进¹(), 张木²(), 卜晓东³(), 张军³()

1. 国防科技大学系统工程学院, 湖南长沙 410073
2. 中国运载火箭技术研究院战术武器事业部, 北京 100076
3. 南京航空航天大学航空学院, 江苏南京 210016

收稿日期:2019-03-04 出版日期:2020-07-25 发布日期:2020-07-27
作者简介:房桂祥 (1979-),男,研究员,博士研究生,主要研究方向为武器装备体系贡献率评估、体系工程管理。E-mail:fgx7906@163.com|谭跃进 (1958-),男,教授,博士研究生导师,博士，主要研究方向为复杂系统工程管理、武器装备体系技术。E-mail:yjtan@nudt.edu.cn|张木 (1985-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要研究方向为武器装备体系优化、武器装备论证。E-mail:nanjingzhangmo@163.com|卜晓东 (1993-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为体系贡献率评估。E-mail:17751193512@163.com|张军 (1978-),男,副研究员,硕士研究生导师,博士，主要研究方向为武器装备体系结构评估、武器装备体系优化。E-mail:zhangjunrdf@nuaa.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71690223)

Evaluation of relative contribution rate of missile weapon system-of-systems based on combat ring

Guixiang FANG^1,²(), Yuejin TAN¹(), Mu ZHANG²(), Xiaodong BU³(), Jun ZHANG³()

1. College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
2. Tactical Weapons Division, China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, China
3. College of Aerospace Engineering, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

Received:2019-03-04 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-07-27
Supported by:
国家自然科学基金(71690223)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于作战环理论,从节点、边、环等层次建立武器装备体系作战网络模型,并结合蒙特卡罗方法,提出一套高效的体系相对贡献率评估方法。针对典型作战想定,研究两种导弹不同发射数目对突防和毁伤概率的影响。仿真结果表明:导弹的突防概率随着发射数目的增加而显著增加;当导弹发射数目超过6枚时,目标毁伤概率高达95.3%以上,基本达到饱和;导弹I₂作战效能明显比导弹I₁高；当发射导弹数量小于等于3枚时, I₂的体系相对贡献率达到133.3%以上。

关键词: 体系作战, 蒙特卡罗方法, 体系相对贡献率

Abstract:

Based on the combat ring theory, the combat network model of the weapon equipment system-of-systems is established from the nodes, edges and rings. An efficient system relative contribution rate evaluation method is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method. According to typical combat scenarios, the effects of two types of missiles on the penetration probability and damage probability are studied under different emission numbers. Simulation results show that the missile penetration probability increases significantly with the increase of its number. When more than six missiles are launched, the target's damage probability is as high as 95.3%, which is basically saturated. The operational effectiveness of I₂ is significantly higher than I₁. When the number of missiles is less than 3, the system-of-systems relative contribution rate of I₂ reaches more than 133.3%.

Key words: combat system-of-systems, Monte Carlo method, relative contribution rate of system-of-systems

中图分类号:

N936

房桂祥, 谭跃进, 张木, 卜晓东, 张军. 基于作战环的导弹武器系统体系相对贡献率评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(8): 1734-1739.

Guixiang FANG, Yuejin TAN, Mu ZHANG, Xiaodong BU, Jun ZHANG. Evaluation of relative contribution rate of missile weapon system-of-systems based on combat ring[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(8): 1734-1739.

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能力指标	取值范围
抗毁系数	0.82
预警时间/s	[0.4，0.9]
机动速度/节	[0, 40]
隐身系数	0.63
初始距离/km	[500，2 000]
相对拦截能力	[0.5，0.9]
抗光学系数	0.74
抗雷达系数	0.71
抗红外系数	0.68

发射平台	发射数目/枚	I₁突防概率	I₂突防概率
1	1	0.259	0.407
1	2	0.452	0.687
2	3	0.590	0.862
2	4	0.699	0.944
3	5	0.893	0.983
3	6	0.966	0.998
4	7	0.989	0.999
4	8	0.997	0.999

发射平台	发射数目/枚	I₁毁伤概率	I₂毁伤概率
1	1	0.065	0.148
1	2	0.187	0.476
2	3	0.355	0.801
2	4	0.570	0.931
3	5	0.824	0.974
3	6	0.953	0.997
4	7	0.980	0.998
4	8	0.995	0.998

发射平台	发射数目/枚	I₁作战效能	I₂作战效能
1	1	0.051	0.119
1	2	0.145	0.383
2	3	0.279	0.658
2	4	0.442	0.773
3	5	0.598	0.782
3	6	0.714	0.791
4	7	0.733	0.792
4	8	0.737	0.792

发射平台	发射数目/枚	I₂体系相对贡献率/%
1	1	133.3
1	2	164.1
2	3	135.8
2	4	74.9
3	5	30.8
3	6	10.8
4	7	8.0
4	8	7.5

基于作战环的导弹武器系统体系相对贡献率评估

Evaluation of relative contribution rate of missile weapon system-of-systems based on combat ring

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