两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.04.29

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 954-959.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.04.29

两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析

张奡¹(), 王治华¹(), 赵振平²(), 秦续国²(), 吴琼³(), 刘成瑞⁴()

1. 北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院, 北京 100083
2. 北京航天长征飞行器研究所系统研发部, 北京 100076
3. 中国空间技术研究院总体部, 北京 100080
4. 北京控制工程研究所研发中心, 北京 100080

收稿日期:2019-07-15 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2020-03-28
作者简介:张奡(1994-),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为性能退化可靠性分析。E-mail:buaazhangao@163.com|王治华(1981-),通信作者,女,副教授,博士研究生导师，博士,主要研究方向为复杂系统状态监测、性能退化试验优化设计与寿命预测。E-mail:wangzhihua@buaa.edu.cn|赵振平(1975-),男,研究员，硕士,主要研究方向为飞行器设计。E-mail:13683009963@163.com|秦续国(1982-),男,高级工程师,博士，主要研究方向为再入飞行器总体设计。E-mail:qinxg1201@163.com|吴琼(1981-),男,高级工程师,博士，主要研究方向为航天器机构设计及可靠性分析与验证。E-mail:wing21@126.com|刘成瑞(1978-),男,研究员,硕士研究生导师,博士，主要研究方向为航天器故障诊断、容错控制与可靠性。E-mail:liuchengrui_502@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(11872085)

Two-phase nonlinear Wiener process for degradation modeling and reliability analysis

Ao ZHANG¹(), Zhihua WANG¹(), Zhenping ZHAO²(), Xuguo QIN²(), Qiong WU³(), Chengrui LIU⁴()

1. School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China
2. System Research and Development Center, Beijing Institute of Space Long March Vehicle, Beijing 100076, China
3. Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering, China Academy of Space Technology, Beijing 100080, China
4. Research and Development Center, Beijing Institute of Control Engineering, Beijing 100080, China

Received:2019-07-15 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2020-03-28
Supported by:
国家自然科学基金(11872085)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于性能退化数据对产品进行可靠性分析一直是可靠性工程领域研究的热点与难点。针对多阶段退化过程中存在的非线性规律,同时考虑变点位置位于测试时刻之间的一般情形且各试样变点存在个体差异性的实际情况,提出了基于Wiener过程的两阶段非线性退化模型,给出了模型参数极大似然估计方法,建立了可靠性分析和寿命预测方法。最后通过高压脉冲电容器实例的对比分析,验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。结果表明,与多阶段线性Wiener过程方法相比,所提方法能够更加准确地描述退化过程的非线性时变特征,进而得到更为合理的寿命评估结果。

关键词: 非线性退化建模, 多阶段退化, Wiener过程, 寿命预测

Abstract:

Reliability analysis based on product degradation data has become a research focus and a difficult topic in the field of reliability engineering. A two-phase nonlinear degradation model based on the Wiener process is proposed. It can reasonably consider the commonly encountered situation where a change point locates between the test time, and specific properties of each unit are shown regarding the change point. Then a maximum likelihood parameter estimation method is given. Reliability analysis and lifetime prediction methods are constructed. Finally, the reasonability and effectiveness of the methods are validated by a comparative analysis regarding high voltage pulse capacitors. The results show that the proposed model can describe the nonlinear time-varying properties illustrated by the degradation process more accurately than the multi-phase linear Wiener process model, and then more reasonable lifetime assessment results can be obtained.

Key words: nonlinear degradation modeling, multi-phase degradation, Wiener process, lifetime prediction

中图分类号:

V488
O231

张奡, 王治华, 赵振平, 秦续国, 吴琼, 刘成瑞. 两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(4): 954-959.

Ao ZHANG, Zhihua WANG, Zhenping ZHAO, Xuguo QIN, Qiong WU, Chengrui LIU. Two-phase nonlinear Wiener process for degradation modeling and reliability analysis[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(4): 954-959.

图/表 6

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表3

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参数	μ₁	σ₁²	α₁	γ₁	μ_τ	μ₂	σ₂²	α₂	γ₂	σ_τ²
取值	1.857e-4	0.161 6	5.125	0.697 2	6.489	5.242e-2	5.078e-2	2.048	1.144	0.391 8

模型	M₀	M₁
未知参数个数	13	8
log-LF	-7.164	-43.99
AIC	40.33	104.0

模型	M₀	M₁
t_0.5/月	34.21	137.8
t_0.1/月	33.59	118.8

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两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析

Two-phase nonlinear Wiener process for degradation modeling and reliability analysis

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