关键词: 空间可修系统, 维修性分析, 维修性评价, 维修性验证, 贝叶斯理论

Abstract: With the development of the on-orbit service technology, it is possible for the on-orbit spacecraft to be maintained. This paper defines the concept of space maintainable system (SMS). The maintainability analysis, evaluation and verification technology for SMS are proposed by combining the development status of maintainability analysis, evaluation and verification methods with the complex characteristics of SMS and the small amount of on-orbit maintenance data. The maintainability analysis method based on maintenance trouble analysis is adopted by using a large number of spacecraft fault data. The qualitative evaluation and the quantitative evaluation scheme based on neural network are constructed respectively to further evaluate the maintainability design. Finally, considering the constraints of small sample size in the real environment, a small-sample maintainability verification method based on Bayes theory is proposed to reduce the amount of samples effectively.

Key words: space maintainable system (SMS), maintainability analysis, maintainability evaluation, maintainability verification, Bayes theory