Abstract:

To address the problems of large error of the prediction method in predicting the subsequent spare part requirements, a prediction method of subsequent spare parts based on the exponential smoothing method and rough set theory is proposed. According to the trend of spare part requirements data orientation, the times and smoothing coefficient of exponential smoothing are determined by fitting. From the data fluctuation influence factors of spare parts demand in equipment using, the basic prediction method without depending on the proposed improved prediction is proposed. Then a correction model of rough set theory is constructed. Exploring the effectiveness of the model with example and analyzing the advantages of the proposed method, it shows that the correction method can significantly improve the prediction precision which is different from traditional ideas. This method has good generality without involving internal features of the basic prediction methods and introducing other auxiliary methods.