Abstract:

Aiming at the problem that the discrete GM(1,1) simulation sequence does not reflect the dynamic change of the stepwise ratio of original data sequence, through analysing the sequence of stepwise ratio of original data sequence, a new discrete GM(1,1) model is established based on the sequence of the stepwise ratio. Then by using the relationship between original sequence and stepwise ratio,the simulated sequence can be gotten, and the new model reflects the dynamics of stepwise ratio better than the old model. The numerical results show that the new discrete GM(1,1) is better than the discrete GM(1,1) model, in terms of relative error and average relative error of the extent of the changes.