Abstract:

In the induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) combination model, there may be many different ordinal arranges of induced values when individual forecasting methods have the same precision. Aiming at this problem, the unique ordering can be determinated by taking the history performance of each forecasting method into account synthetically. Meanwhile, the constructing process of the IOWA combination model is very complex when there are many individual forecasting methods. Then the matrix form of the optimization model that is fit for operating the Matlab software is described, which can reduce the computational complexity. Considering the characters of small samples and many forecasting methods in forecasting ship equipment maintenance cost, the ordering of induced values in forecasting period is estimated by the historical averaging fitting precision of individual forecasting methods, and the value of combination forecast is calculated. Finally an example is given to show the availability of this method.