Abstract:

Considering the characteristic that sample size of products used for the reliability growth test is small, a Bayesian evaluation method for reliability growth test based on the ordered Dirichlet distribution is proposed. Standardized description procedure of expert information during the reliability growth process and prior distribution quantified from expert information in Bayesian framework are figured out by applying statistical features of the ordered Dirichlet distribution. The evaluation method of system reliability at each reliability growth test stage is also presented. Due to combining historic information, subjective information and objective information, the evaluation problem about system reliability growth test under the condition of small sample size is solved efficiently.