Abstract:

With respect to decision-makers’ psychological behavior characteristics under the uncertain emergencies, considering two properties of decision-makers’ psychological perceived utility value and the result scenario occurring probability, a dynamic adjustment method for emergency decision-making based on utility risk entropy is built by analyzing the dynamic reference point and psychological perception of decision-makers. Using the prospect theory, the “profit and loss value” of the psychological perception is obtained by comparing the real-time economic loss of emergency with the psychological dynamic adjustment point to calculate the psychological perceived utility value of decision-makers. Further, combining the result scenario occurring probability of each emergency plan and reasonably, the risk entropy theory is used to calculate risk of dynamic emergency, the measure of dynamic adjustment methods and procedures is obtained. Finally, an example is given to verify the reasonable effectiveness of the method.