一类技术创新竞争扩散的微分动力学模型及应用

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2009, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7): 1632-1638.

一类技术创新竞争扩散的微分动力学模型及应用

廖志高^1,2, 徐玖平¹

1. 四川大学工商管理学院, 四川, 成都, 610064;
2. 广西工学院管理系, 广西, 柳州, 545005

收稿日期:2008-05-17 修回日期:2009-05-31 出版日期:2009-07-20 发布日期:2010-01-03
作者简介:廖志高(1977- ),男,副教授,博士研究生,主要研究方向为微分动力系统,不确定决策.E-mail:liaoxie_27@sina.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(08&ZD009);国家自然科学基金重点项目(70831005);国家杰出青年科学基金(70425005)资助课题

A class of differential dynamical model of competitive diffusion and its empirical analysis

LIAO Zhi-gao^1,2, XU Jiu-ping¹

1. School of Business and Administration, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610064, China;
2. Management Dept., Guangxi Univ. of Technology, Liuzhou 545005, China

Received:2008-05-17 Revised:2009-05-31 Online:2009-07-20 Published:2010-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 回顾了技术创新扩散的研究发展过程,针对以往竞争模型中没有考虑市场潜力是动态变化的缺陷,建立了动态潜力市场的技术创新竞争扩散的微分动力学三阶段模型,并利用微分动力系统理论对该模型进行了稳定性分析。利用两种创新技术采纳数和动态市场潜力对该模型进行模拟仿真,相比之前的扩散模型,发现该模型能较好地模拟实际市场扩散潜力是不断动态变化的客观现实。最后,利用该模型对两种创新技术采纳数和市场潜力进行了预测,取得了较为满意的结果。

Abstract: With briefly reviewing the developing process of the conditional quantitative analysis on the diffusion of the technology innovation,and being aimed at the lacks of the conditional quantitative analysis on the competitive diffusion of two innovations,a new dynamical model with the varied potential market is formatted.The stability analysis on this model is made with the theory of differential dynamical systems.And through the empirical analysis,it can be found that this model is better to simulate the diffusion process of the innovations in which the diffusion market potential is dynamical.The potential of adopters of the two innovations is also forecasted,and a perfect result is obtained.

中图分类号:

O193
C931

廖志高, 徐玖平. 一类技术创新竞争扩散的微分动力学模型及应用[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2009, 31(7): 1632-1638.

LIAO Zhi-gao, XU Jiu-ping. A class of differential dynamical model of competitive diffusion and its empirical analysis[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2009, 31(7): 1632-1638.

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