基于平均场理论的航空安全风险预警模型

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.01.22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于航空事故的发生往往很难预测, 而且是不可逆转的, 因此如何制定有效的航空预警方案是避免事故发生的关键。针对航空安全风险预警问题, 利用航空风险传播动力学模型, 基于平均场理论解析航空系统事故触发概率, 通过敏感性分析得出触发事件对航空事故发生的提升率, 建立事前航空事故预警模型。结果发现, 事前预警模型中应该分配更多的资源给能见度差、飞机系统故障、疲劳、特情处置不力、技能不足、设备维护不足等触发事件, 从而避免上述事件的发生。通过航空事故风险传播规律, 建立事中航空事故预警模型, 得出受到触发事件影响的风险演化事件集合, 并给出对应排序使得管理者可以做到资源的有效分配。

关键词: 航空事故报告, 复杂网络, 传染病模型, 平均场理论, 风险预警

Abstract:

As the occurrence of aviation accidents is often difficult to predict and irreversible, how to develop effective aviation warning plans is the key to avoiding the occurrence of accidents. Aiming at aviation safety risk early warning, the aviation risk propagation dynamics model is introduced and the probability of aviation system accidents triggering based on the mean field theory is derived. Through sensitivity analysis, the increase rate of triggering events on aviation accidents is obtained, and a pre-accident warning model is proposed. The results show that more resources should be allocated to trigger events such as poor visibility, aircraft system failure, fatigue, poor handling of special situation, insufficient skills and insufficient maintenance of equipment in the pre-warning model to avoid the occurrence of the above events. Based on the risk transmission law of aviation accidents, the early warning model of aviation accidents in the event is established, the risk evolution event set affected by triggering events is obtained, and the corresponding sequence is given so that managers can effectively allocate resources.

Key words: aviation accident report, complex network, epidemic model, mean field theory, risk early warning

中图分类号:

V328

张晗, 王强, 闵桂龙. 基于平均场理论的航空安全风险预警模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(1): 210-216.

Han ZHANG, Qiang WANG, Guilong MIN. Aviation safety risk early warning model based on mean field theory[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(1): 210-216.

图/表 5

参考文献 30

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