基于数据挖掘的前沿技术识别方法与实证研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.09.20

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (9): 3082-3092.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.09.20

• 系统工程 • 上一篇

基于数据挖掘的前沿技术识别方法与实证研究

苗红¹, 连佳欣¹, 李伟伟², 耿国桐³^,*, 王浩桐¹, 张惠钊¹, 吴菲菲¹

1. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100124
2. 军事科学院国防科技创新研究院, 北京 100071
3. 军事科学院军事科学信息研究中心, 北京 100011

收稿日期:2023-09-28 出版日期:2024-08-30 发布日期:2024-09-12
通讯作者: 耿国桐
作者简介:苗红 (1977—), 女, 副教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为技术创新管理
连佳欣 (2000—), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为技术创新管理
李伟伟 (1992—), 男, 助理研究员, 博士, 主要研究方向为前沿科技发展战略
耿国桐 (1975—), 男, 研究员, 博士, 主要研究方向为科技情报与发展战略
王浩桐 (2000—), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为技术创新管理
张惠钊 (1998—), 男, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为技术创新管理
吴菲菲 (1962—), 女, 教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为技术创新管理

Frontier technology identification method and empirical research based on data mining

Hong MIAO¹, Jiaxin LIAN¹, Weiwei LI², Guotong GENG³^,*, Haotong WANG¹, Huizhao ZHANG¹, Feifei WU¹

1. College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
2. National Innovation Institute of Defense Technology, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100071, China
3. Center for Information Research, Academy of Military Sciences, Beijing 100011, China

Received:2023-09-28 Online:2024-08-30 Published:2024-09-12
Contact: Guotong GENG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依据前沿技术的前瞻性、先导性、探索性及颠覆性特征, 构建基于数据挖掘的前沿技术识别方法, 可为高效制定技术发展策略、合理调整技术规划布局提供支撑。首先, 以工程索引(engineering index, EI)和德温特创新(Derwent innovation, DI) 平台数据库为数据源, 制定检索表达式采集数据, 并对数据进行预处理。其次, 建立表征前沿技术特征的指标体系, 并对据此筛选出的技术文本数据进行挖掘, 识别前沿技术主题。最后, 以量子计算领域为例开展实证研究, 识别出量子纠错技术、光量子芯片技术等前沿技术点, 经技术专家等验证, 表明识别结果科学有效。

关键词: 数据挖掘, 技术识别, 前沿技术

Abstract:

Based on the forward-looking, pioneering, exploratory, and disruptive characteristics of frontier technologies, a method of frontier technology identification based on data mining is constructed to provide support for efficient formulation of technology development strategies and rational adjustment of technology planning and layout. Firstly, data is collected and processed from the engineering index (EI) and Derwent innovation (DI) platform databases as a data source by formulating retrieval expressions. Secondly, the index system representing the characteristics of frontier technology is established, and the selected technical text data is mined to identify the frontier technology topics. Finally, empirical research is conducted in the field of quantum computing as an example, identifying frontier technology topics such as quantum error correction and optical quantum chips. This verification is confirmed by expert review and other methods, making identifying issues scientifically and practically applicable.

Key words: data mining, technology identification, frontier technology

中图分类号:

F204

苗红, 连佳欣, 李伟伟, 耿国桐, 王浩桐, 张惠钊, 吴菲菲. 基于数据挖掘的前沿技术识别方法与实证研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46(9): 3082-3092.

Hong MIAO, Jiaxin LIAN, Weiwei LI, Guotong GENG, Haotong WANG, Huizhao ZHANG, Feifei WU. Frontier technology identification method and empirical research based on data mining[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(9): 3082-3092.

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阶段	特征
阶段	文献数量a	文献增长率b	专利数量c	专利增长率(平均) d	专利权人数量e	IPC数量f	IPC聚集度g	参考文献数量h
萌芽期	少, a=c	低	少, a=c	低	少	少	低	大
成长期	多, a>c	高	多, a>c	高	多	大	大	大
成熟期	a < c	低, >0	a < c	低, >0	少	d_f>d_g	d_f>d_g	小

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	含义/数据源/阈值
前沿性	前瞻性	阶段性	处于技术生命周期曲线萌芽期、成长期(文献、专利)
	前瞻性	方向引领性	以ESI高被引论文作者的研究文献表征关键学者的关注方向(文献) 基金资助文献表征关键组织的关注方向(文献)
	先导性	关联性	分类码数量表征学科多样性(文献, 阈值: 大于平均值) IPC数量表征技术领域多样性(专利, 阈值: 大于平均值)
	先导性	影响力	文献被引频次(文献, 阈值: 大于平均值) 权利要求书项数(专利, 阈值: 大于平均值)
	探索性	新颖性	文献平均出版时间(文献, 阈值: 大于平均值) 专利平均公开时间(专利, 阈值: 大于平均值)
		创新性	对某领域文献的所有关键词进行成对组合, 如果这种组合在之前的文献中没有出现, 说明产生了新组合, 该组合被认为是具有创新性(文献, 阈值: 大于0.5)
		创新性	对某领域专利的所有IPC大组进行成对组合, 如果这种组合在之前的技术中没有出现, 说明产生了新组合, 该组合被认为是具有创新性(专利, 阈值: 大于0.5)
	颠覆性	独创性	借助专利引用领域的多样性, 即专利的后向引用是否属于其他技术领域, 对技术的突破性程度进行判断(专利, 阈值: 大于0.5)
	颠覆性	潜在价值	目标专利在不同国家或地区专利申请的数量(专利, 阈值: 大于平均值)

子领域名称	DI专利检索表达式	EI文献检索表达式	是否具备前瞻性
超导量子计算	TAB=((superconducting ADJ quantum) or (superconducting ADJ quantum ADJ comput*) or (superconducting ADJ computer NEAR5 device))	STA=((superconducting quantum) or (superconducting quantum comput*) or (superconducting computer NEAR/5 device))	是
量子加密技术	TAB=((quantum ADJ encrypt) or (quantum near5encrypt) or (quantum ADJ cryptograph*))	STA=((quantum encrypt) or (quantum NEAR/5 encrypt) or (quantum cryptograph*))	否
基于光子的量子计算技术	TAB=((light ADJ quantum ADJ comput) or (optical ADJ quantum ADJ comput) or (single ADJ photon ADJ source) or (ultra-low ADJ loss ADJ light ADJ quantum ADJ line) or (single ADJ photon ADJ detector))	STA=((light quantum comput) or (optical quantum comput) or (single photon source) or (ultra-low loss light quantum line) or (single photon detector))	是
离子阱量子计算机	TAB=((trapped ADJ ion ADJ quantum ADJ comput*) or (quantum ADJ coherence) or (Ion ADJ trap)or(trapped ADJ ion))	STA=((trapped ion quantum comput*) or (quantum coherence) or (Ion trap) or (trapped ion))	否

子领域名称	IPC数量平均值	权利要求书项数平均值	专利平均公开年份	分类码数量平均值	被引频次平均值	出版时间平均年份
超导量子计算	1.97	13.21	1997	5.15	47.84	1991
基于光子的量子计算技术	1.79	10.35	2017	6.05	32.29	1993

子领域名称	技术主题名称
超导量子计算	主题1:低温制冷技术
	主题2:超导电路技术
	主题3:量子纠错技术
	主题4:室温超导技术
	主题5:超导量子芯片技术
	主题6:超导探测技术
	主题7:拓扑超导体
基于光子的量子计算技术	主题1:单光子探测技术
	主题2:光量子逻辑门
	主题3:光量子芯片技术
	主题4:单光子源技术
	主题5:光量子放大技术
	主题6:量子降噪技术
	主题7:量子光子集成电路技术

基于数据挖掘的前沿技术识别方法与实证研究

Frontier technology identification method and empirical research based on data mining

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